US-Saudi Treaty Faces Big Hurdles

The Biden administration is close to finalising a treaty with Saudi Arabia that would commit the US to help defend the Gulf nation as part of a longshot deal to encourage diplomatic ties ­between Riyadh and Israel.

But the success of the diplomatic effort hinges on Israel’s commitment to a separate Palestinian state, and more immediately an end to the war in Gaza, an unlikely proposition amid months of fruitless ceasefire talks and an Israeli weekend raid to retrieve hostages from the heart of the territory.

The US aims to present Israeli leaders with an opportunity to achieve their long-sought goal of establishing normal relations with Saudi Arabia and opening the door to greater acceptance in the Arab and Muslim worlds. In ­return, Israel must support a credible path toward a two-state solution with the Palestinians, something the Israeli government and most of the country’s public oppose.

The diplomatic push for a ­defence pact with Riyadh marks a remarkable turnaround for President Joe Biden, who as a candidate vowed to treat Saudi Arabia as a pariah and make it pay a price for the assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, a US resident. Mr Biden is now on the cusp of making a formal commitment to protect the oil-rich monarchy, which is charting an ambitious path of economic and social development while still suppressing dissent.

“It would be the first time the US concluded a mutual defence pact that would carry the force of law since the 1960 revision of the US-Japan treaty, and the first time it concluded such an agreement with an authoritarian country,” said Aaron David Miller, a former US peace negotiator now with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a Washington-based think tank.

A security alliance would ­elevate Saudi Arabia’s regional standing and entrench the US military role in the Middle East as it convulses from the October 7 attack led by Hamas against Israel and the ensuing war in Gaza. A deal would also buttress Saudi ­Arabia’s security, while risking increased tensions with Iran, which competes for regional ­supremacy with Saudi Arabia and has been deepening its ties with Russia.

US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said last month that Israel’s long-term security depended on its integration and normal relations with Arab states, including Saudi Arabia.

The treaty must obtain a two-thirds majority vote in the US Senate as required by the Constitution. It is unlikely to gain support from enough legislators without being linked to a Saudi commitment to normalise ties with Israel.

Before the Saudis do that, though, they would like to see an end to the war in Gaza as well as what they term as irreversible and irrevocable steps within several years toward the establishment of a Palestinian state. Israeli opposition to a two-state solution could make that a difficult hurdle to clear.