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Analysis | Saudi Progress With Israel ‘Parachutes Over Palestine,’ Leaving Jordan’s Abdullah Frustrated

Posted on February 19, 2024February 19, 2024 by admin

Jordanian King Abdullah couldn’t have been clearer when he spoke about the normalization process cooking between Israel and Saudi Arabia: “This belief, by some in the region, that you can parachute over Palestine, deal with the Arabs and work your way back – that does not work.”

“And even those countries that have Abraham Accords with Israel have difficulty moving publicly on those issues when Israelis and Palestinians are dying,” he added. “So unless we solve this problem, there will never be a true peace.”

Speaking at the Al-Monitor/Semafor Middle East Global Summit last month, which took place on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, he said, “There are two elephants in the room” – one is the younger generation of Palestinian leaders, whose identity and goals are not known, and the second is “where is Israel going? How can we have an understanding of a political horizon? Is it a one-state solution that you want? Is it a two-state solution? And I’m sure your state solution is different than mine.”

His words weren’t only directed at Israel; they also reverberated in Saudi Arabia, where according to recent reports the government is willing to be “flexible” regarding the so-called Palestinian conditions it will demand prior to normalization with Israel. This is parachuting over the Palestinian problem that the king means, and the trap that he’s also warning the Saudis about.

Abdullah has a belly full of grudges against Israel, and particularly against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The ties between them suffer from severe frost, with those close to Abdullah speaking of “promises unkept and new promises meant to mollify the king.”

“However,” a senior Jordanian source adds, “we have already learned that there is no one to trust on the Israeli side except for the Israeli intelligence personnel, who efficiently maintain the ties between the two countries.”

Jordanian anxiety regarding Israeli normalization with Saudi Arabia stems from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s aim to style himself the custodian of all holy places, and not just the custodian of the two holy places located within his borders, as his official title.

Will Israel give Saudi Arabia an official status at the Temple Mount compound, known as Haram a-Sharif, and push out Jordan, which received custodianship over the compound in its own peace agreement with Israel? Israeli sources claim that the question of the holy places is “off limits” in negotiations with Riyadh.

“Israel will continue to abide by its commitments to Jordan, as will the United States,” a Foreign Ministry source told Haaretz. But these promises are not being made publicly. There was no Israeli or American announcement on the matter, and the fear in Jordan is that the commitment may fade amid excitement over the rush toward normalization.

The subject actually came up at a meeting in Egypt about a month ago, attended by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah al-Sissi and Abdullah, to discuss “common interests and coordination ahead of the normalization.” From past bitter experience, Abdullah fears a repeat of the discussions held ahead of former U.S. President Donald Trump’s “deal of the century,” which saw Jordan on the sidelines and not as an active participant.

Now it seems that Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United States are again “parachuting” over Jordan, like the move, which may greatly impact its position vis-à-vis the Palestinians, has nothing to do with it.

Against Abdullah’s official position, which adheres to the two-state solution, even if he realizes that it’s not realistic, and in light of Saudi Arabia’s elastic position and the nature of the Israeli government, there are also other voices discussing the best strategy for Jordan.

A report published in August by the Jordanian think tank Institute for Policy and Society offers three options. The first: Leave things as they are, meaning continue to cling to the two-state solution even if only decoratively, thus adopting the American position, which does not truly believe in the feasibility of this option.

The second: Prepare for the “one-state” solution, which for Jordan means abandoning its traditional policy, and in practice turning the Palestinian problem into an Israeli problem – renouncing any Jordanian responsibility for the fate of the Palestinians.

The third option is going in the other direction: Not renouncing responsibility or clinging to the illusion of two states, but intervening in Palestinian politics to build a consensual leadership, to include all Palestinian factions, meaning Hamas as well, to ensure the ties between Jordan and the Palestinians, and restore Jordan’s position as the Palestinians’ sponsor.

Abdullah has yet to adopt the conclusions of the study, but in New York he said explicitly: “We Jordanians, Arabs, Israelis, Americans do not know who the younger generation of Palestinians are. And this is very, very important for us to be able to reach out to, to these young voices.”

This is a new and fascinating position, which, if accepted by the Palestinians, may force Israel, Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Abraham Accords signatories, extant and future, to recognize Jordan’s authority and status.

By so doing, it will lead not only to Jordanian involvement in all diplomatic efforts, but also to establishing Amman as a managing entity for events in the territories, although not a controlling one, to neutralize the Saudi ambitions, and perhaps to curb those of Israel as well.

Saudis, US agree on path to normalise ties with Israel

Posted on September 27, 2023September 27, 2023 by admin

The US and Saudi Arabia have agreed on the broad contours of a deal for Saudi Arabia to recognise Israel in exchange for concessions to the Palestinians, US security guarantees and civilian nuclear help, according to US officials.
US officials expressed cautious optimism that, in the next nine to 12 months, they can hammer out the finer details of what would be the most momentous Middle East peace deal in a generation. But they warned that they face long odds.
The stepped-up efforts come after Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman met in Jeddah two weeks ago with Jake Sullivan, President Joe Biden’s national security adviser, in a bid to accelerate talks. Negotiators now have moved to discussing specifics, including addressing Saudi requests that the US help them develop a civilian nuclear program and offer iron clad security guarantees.
The Saudis are also seeking significant concessions from Israel that would help promote the creation of a Palestinian state. In return, the US is pressing Saudi Arabia to impose limits on its growing relationship with China.
“There’s a work plan to explore the elements of what this would be and test the boundaries of what’s possible,” said one senior US official.
The efforts are the outgrowth of a recognition in Washington, Riyadh and Jerusalem that now is the time to try to broker a deal, according to US officials. Mr Biden has tried to winnow the US military presence in the Middle East and build a regional security alliance capable of countering threats from Iran with limited American backing.
And while US officials say that Mr Biden has yet to decide what price he is willing to pay, the President’s focus on the deal is a reflection of his view that America has to remain a central player in the Middle East to contain Iran, isolate Russia for its war in Ukraine and thwart efforts by China to supplant Washington’s interests in the region.
After The Wall Street Journal story appeared online Wednesday, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said that negotiators still had a long way to go. “There is no agreed-to set of negotiations, there’s no agreed-to framework to codify the normalisation or any of the other security considerations that we and our friends have in the region,” he said.
In exchange for US concessions to Saudi Arabia, the Biden administration is seeking assurances from Saudi Arabia that it will distance itself — economically and militarily — from China, say US officials.
The officials said the US could seek assurances from Saudi Arabia that it won’t allow China to build military bases in the kingdom — an issue that has become a sore point between the Biden administration and United Arab Emirates. Negotiators could also seek limitations on Saudi Arabia using technology developed by China’s Huawei and assurances that Riyadh will use US dollars, not Chinese currency, to price oil sales, they said. The US also is expected to look for ways to end the feud over oil prices driven by Saudi Arabia’s repeated production cuts.
Mohammed has given conflicting messages about his commitment to different audiences. US officials working on the issue say that Mohammed is serious about trying to broker a deal. But the crown prince has told aides that he isn’t ready to establish full diplomatic relations with Israel similar to those with the United Arab Emirates, which signed a deal in 2020, according to Saudi officials.

The crown prince told his advisers that he was in no rush, especially with the current hard-line coalition government in Israel that opposes creation of an independent Palestinian state, they said.
Brian Katulis, vice president of policy at the Middle East Institute in Washington, compared the effort to mountain climbers trying to scale several Mount Everests in succession.
“It’s such a dangerous landscape,” he said. “There are four or five things they need to do to make sure they don’t go into thin air and go off the mountain. To me, it seems highly improbable in the short run, but who knows?”
One hurdle facing negotiators is what concessions Israel will have to make to Palestinians in exchange for open diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia. US and Saudi officials say that Israel will have to make a significant offer that advances efforts to create an independent Palestinian state.
Israeli leaders play down the importance of the Palestinian issue in the talks. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said earlier this week that the issue comes up in negotiations “a lot less than you think.” “It’s sort of a check box,” he told Bloomberg News. “You have to check it to say that you’re doing it.” The issue remains one of the least developed points in talks, according to people briefed on the discussions.
Israeli national security adviser Tzachi Hanegbi said negotiators have yet to float specific ideas with Israeli leaders. “At the moment, we don’t even know where to begin,” he said. “They are still dealing with basic issues between them. So apparently it’s premature even for them to discuss it.”
Saudi officials have dwindling patience for uncompromising and divided Palestinian leaders with limited popular support. But as the home to the two of the most important holy sites in Islam, Saudi Arabia is looking to secure a meaningful concession from Israel to fend off criticism from rivals in Iran and Turkey looking to accuse the kingdom of quashing Palestinian dreams of an independent state. The Palestinian issue also remains important for activists in Saudi Arabia and around the world.
Mr Netanyahu has made it clear that he is willing to make only modest concessions to the Palestinians, and even those could face opposition from his hard-line coalition partners who want to annex Israeli-occupied Palestinian land in the West Bank.
Israeli officials have also expressed concerns about Saudi Arabia’s quest to develop its nuclear-energy program, something they see as a dangerous acceleration of the regional nuclear arms race. Although Israel won’t publicly admit it, it is the only country in the region with nuclear weapons, and it doesn’t want to see others join the small club.
Israeli officials worry that US support for a civilian nuclear program in Saudi Arabia could pave the way for Riyadh to develop nuclear weapons, which Mohammed has said he would do if Iran does so first.
Israel’s Hanegbi said that he had “full confidence” that “whatever the United States will decide” on the issue would address Israeli concerns.

Details of a deal are also expected to face scrutiny in congress, where many legislators are loath to make concessions to Mohammed, who US intelligence officials say gave a green light in 2018 to send a Saudi hit team to Istanbul to kill journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
US legislators are already raising concerns about the prospect of America offering Saudi Arabia treaty-bound assurances that the US would come to the kingdom’s defence if it is attacked — a guarantee that would require Senate approval. Even lesser security guarantees that don’t require explicit support from congress are likely to face resistance in Washington.
Some legislators are opposed to talk of expanding arms sales to Saudi Arabia, which Biden put limits on when he took office in 2021 to protest the kingdom’s use of American weapons in Yemen.
If the US can negotiate a package that is acceptable to Saudi, Israeli, Palestinian, and congressional leaders, the Biden administration is then hoping that global pressure to support a history shifting deal would prompt opposition parties in Israel to join forces with Netanyahu and endorse the agreement, something they so far have refused to consider.

Israel to open ‘there is no occupation’ campaign, new minister says

Posted on January 22, 2023January 22, 2023 by admin

Israel plans to launch a campaign to explain to the global community that there “is no occupation,” Public Diplomacy Minister Galit Distal Atbaryan said on Monday.

“We have not occupied any territory, there is no occupation.”

“We have not occupied any territory, there is no occupation,” she told Israel Radio just one day after the government voted to open a new ministry at the potential initial cost of NIS 8 million.

“It’s not every day that a person becomes a minister and opens a ministry from scratch. It’s both emotional and slightly scary,” she said.

What will Israel’s new ministry under Galit Distal Atbaryan do?

Distal Atbaryan’s work will come on top of that which is already conducted by the Foreign Ministry and that of the Diaspora Affairs Ministry, which will campaign against the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions movement.

It’s not the first time Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has tasked a minister with public diplomacy outside the context of the Foreign Ministry. In 2015, he created the Strategic Affairs and Public Diplomacy Ministry. This time around he has revived that office but split it into two and given it slightly different functions.

Distal Atbaryan said she disagreed with past diplomatic Foreign Ministry initiatives to rebrand Israel as a country of innovation, agriculture technology, having a great music scene and being tolerant of gay rights, rather than one that is beset by conflict and war.

That initiative says “Listen, we are amazing and wonderful. We have USB sticks and cherry tomatoes and water technology and look at how we did at the Eurovision and what wonderful gay pride parades we have,” she said.

But the response to that, Distal Atbaryan said, is often that’s nice, “but you have stolen and captured a house, so leave the home and do all those wonderful things somewhere else.”

But “we have not captured or stolen a home,” she said.

Israeli minister: “We have not captured or stolen a home”

The time has come to delve into the heart of the matter, she said. First, Israel has to create an infrastructure by which to explain that Jews had historical ties to the region of Judea and Samaria, she said as she referenced the connection that dates back thousands of years.

“People do not know about this,” she said, adding that the Bible is the deed of the Jews to the land.

Once that is understood it would help to put events within perspective, she said. Distal Atbaryan did not address any potential government plans to annex portions of the West Bank, which at present exists outside Israel’s sovereign borders.

The question of a resolution to the issue of the West Bank is separate from the question of occupation, said Distal Atbaryan who explained that a public relations campaign had to be opened in the Arab world.

The equation has to be changed. Netanyahu has explained that the attitude of the Arab world has to change so that “99[%] of the Arab world is with us” and then the conflict with the Palestinians can be resolved through dialogue with them and the Arab world, she said.

“I don’t believe that most of the Arab world hates Jews and Zionists. There are many people in the Arab [states] who have fallen sway to mistaken information and incitement,” Distal Atbaryan said.

Israel has extended its hand in peace to the Arabs and the Palestinians since it accepted the pre-state days when the Jews accepted the UN partition plan in 1947 and all the way through the Oslo Accords in the 1990s, Distal Atbaryan said.

She explained that her office will also deal with public relations campaigns on normalizations with Saudi Arabia and Netanyahu’s push to stop Iran from becoming a nuclear state.

Her office, she said, will also focus on providing materials, information and research for other offices that also deal with public diplomatic campaigns. It will create a common infrastructure that will make it easier for everyone to advocate on behalf of Israel.