Why The West Must Triumph

Here’s one way of looking at the turmoil that engulfs the world at the moment.

Ask yourself a simple question: who do you want to win?

Imagine if President Putin were to defeat the Ukrainians. It would of course be the end of a proud and independent country. More than that, it would be one giant step towards the re-establishment of the old Russian Empire and would set a precedent for military might redrawing the map of the world.

Or let’s take the Middle East. Israel is a liberal democratic state governed by the rule of law: like us. If Hamas and Hezbollah – who are just a front for Iran – were to defeat the Israeli defence force forcing the Israeli government to sign an unconditional surrender what would they do?

They would abolish the state of Israel and replace it with an Islamic state where women were reduced to vassals, gays were executed and the modern economy disbanded.

The Jews would not be welcome and be driven into the sea. And by the way, just in case you’re inclined to rant at the Israelis for not agreeing to a two state solution, Iran and its proxies don’t want one.

Understand that. The total destruction of Israel would be the beginning of the end for Western civilisation as they would see it. The worldwide ramifications would be huge. I would go so far as saying it would reorient the entire global system.

Imagine a world where the Iranian ayatollah and his mullahs became among the most powerful people on earth.

I know the Western liberal democracies have not been perfect. Of course they’ve got things wrong over the years. And what’s more, they’re still far from perfect. Some of you will think they haven’t done enough to deal with climate change.

The thing about Western civilisation is it learns from experience. Things are changed if they are deemed to be wrong or unworkable. We battle on.

So when demonstrators are calling for the destruction of Israel, politicians calling for the withdrawal of support for Ukraine and commentators urging us to cede dominance of the Indo Pacific to China, it’s worth reflecting on what a major defeat of the West and its allies would look like. In the end we have to have the capacity to understand the simple core proposition. And the simple point is that Ukraine and Israel need to win.

Alexander Downer was foreign affairs minister from 1996-2007