Netanyahu Paying for His Disregard of Hostages

Hamas’ execution of six Israeli hostages in a tunnel underneath Gaza was a tragedy. It was also a reminder, if one was needed, of the mentality of those guarding them – the execution of the hostages is further evidence of the disregard for human life that groups such as Hamas have shown time and time again.

For all the justifiable criticism of the Israeli approach to civilian harm minimisation in Gaza, one should never lose sight of the fact that the mentality that led Hamas to kill six hostages in cold blood is the same one that let it believe shooting innocent concert-goers, or throwing grenades into bomb shelters housing young people, could be justified in the name of Palestinian sovereignty. Those advocating support for Hamas would do well to reflect on this.

Israel had no choice but to degrade Hamas to the point where it was no longer capable of threatening Israel in the way that it did on October 7. The government also had a moral obligation to recover alive as many of those taken hostage as was humanly possible. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu promised he would achieve both aims simultaneously yet these were effectively two mutually exclusive aims. The more he employed the might of the Israeli military to destroy Hamas, the less likely it was that the hostages could be recovered alive.

And so it has come to pass. More than 100 hostages were released through a negotiated exchange in November last year, while only a handful have been recovered through military action.

Now, it appears the Israeli public has grown tired of Netanyahu’s refusal to countenance a ceasefire agreement that would allow for the return of the hostages. Tens of thousands of protesters took to the streets of Tel Aviv in recent days to call on the government to finalise such an agreement. Meanwhile, the country’s largest trade union called for a general strike that, while not universally observed, further highlighted just how divided the country is on Gaza.

The death of six Israelis may seem a relatively minor loss of life but the reaction to their deaths is representative of a growing realisation that Netanyahu can’t, and in reality never could, destroy Hamas while at the same time recovering the hostages.

With every death of a hostage the numbers of those in Israel who believe there has been enough killing is growing.

Of course, for others in the political and security establishment the end of hostilities will also mean the start of accountability for the security failure of October 7. For them, any delay in ending military operations is welcome – not a justification for continuing them, perhaps, but a chance to put off the inevitable inquiry into what went wrong.

Perhaps more importantly, the end of hostilities also means the start of governing and rebuilding Gaza, and neither the Israeli government nor the international community appear to be ready for that. What or who fills the vacuum during this interim period will go a long way towards determining whether Israel’s military response has made the country any safer in the short term.

After so many Gazans have been killed and their homes destroyed, the generational enmity for Israel among Gazans means that, short of any permanent two-state solution being implemented, there will be no shortage of recruits for radical Islamist groups in Gaza, and Israel is unlikely to be any safer in the long term.

Israel has already promised a post-Munich style reckoning for all those directly involved in the planning and execution of the October 7 attack, and there is little doubt they will follow through on this promise. But the best chance of recovering as many hostages as possible lays in securing a negotiated resolution to the conflict as quickly as possible.

Any negotiated outcome will, of course, require concessions from Israel. There will also be a feeling among some in Israel that Hamas has been rewarded for its perfidy, and a lingering suspicion if all hostages aren’t accounted for that Hamas has retained some as insurance for the future. And it is unlikely that Netanyahu’s coalition government could survive such a deal being negotiated. But true leadership is about making painful decisions in the best interests of the country, including having the wisdom to know when to switch from coercion to negotiation.

Dr Rodger Shanahan is a Middle East analyst. As an army officer, his experience included Lebanon, Syria and Afghanistan. He is the author of Islamic State in Australia.