Analysis | Israel Should End Gaza Operation Now, if It Can

With its back to the wall, Israel’s leadership took the military initiative, hoping to extricate the country from the trap laid by Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip. After border communities were placed under partial lockdown for three days in fear the organization would retaliate for the arrest of one of its leaders in the West Bank, the government found itself with few options. The army killed two military commanders and hit terrorist cells that were apparently preparing for the retaliatory attacks. As of Saturday evening the Palestinians had reported at least 15 fatalities, including the two commanders and a 5-year-old girl.

In response, Islamic Jihad fired over 200 rockets from the Strip. Most of them targeted southern Israeli communities, with a few aimed at Greater Tel Aviv, including Ben-Gurion International Airport. No serious Israeli casualties have been reported; a few people were treated for minor injuries or psychological trauma. According to initial estimates, Israel’s Iron Dome anti-missile system has shot down over 95 percent of the rockets. If Israel can afford it, it seems the time has come to end this military operation, as soon as possible. It is doubtful that further military success is on offer, given that senior figures in Islamic Jihad are now acting with caution. As long as Hamas stays out of the fighting, the damage caused is limited. It is best to stop.

Military officials are gradually reaching the conclusion that Islamic Jihad was looking for an escalation in any case. Preparations for attacking Israeli targets using anti-tank missiles began over a week ago. Israel’s arrest of Islamic Jihad’s leader in Jenin, the humiliating images of the event and the fear (later dispelled) that he was killed, motivated Islamic Jihad to act fast. The IDF and the Shin Bet security service had precise intelligence and began preparations accordingly.

The decision was taken, however controversial, to block major transport routes. At the same time, Israel prepared for the possibility – which eventually materialized – that Qatari and Egyptian mediators would fail to convince Islamic Jihad to call off its retaliation efforts. On Thursday, it emerged that Islamic Jihad did not intend to cancel its plans to act. The organization also demanded an Israeli pledge to refrain from additional arrests in the West Bank, as well as the release from detention without trial in Israel Khalil Awawdeh, an Islamic Jihad activist in the West Bank who has been on a prolonged hunger strike.

Somewhat surprisingly, some senior Islamic Jihad operatives did not go underground. Two of them were killed in Israeli strikes. Islamic Jihad’s command and control systems are less organized and efficient than those of Hamas. Losing their senior commanders has caused some disarray, coming at a time when the organization’s political leaders in Lebanon and Syria were visiting Iran. It took the organization a few hours to respond, and despite the large number of rockets, the Israeli home front had sufficient time for preparations.

This round of hostilities is not yet over, and more rocket barrages aimed at southern, and perhaps central Israel, are likely, potentially resulting in casualties. However, the damage that Islamic Jihad can wreak on its own, being a smaller organization than Hamas with a comparatively limited arsenal, is much less extensive. And so the major factor that will determine the duration and intensity of the fighting will be whether Hamas joins in.

Israeli defense officials believe the senior Hamas leadership in the Strip will not be swayed by the efforts of junior figures to drag them into the conflict, at a less than ideal time for them. The decision also depends on the number of civilian casualties. Many casualties will lead to increased pressure on Hamas to act. This is why senior IDF figures are repeatedly insisting that the military is doing all it can to minimize civilian casualties in the Gaza Strip.

And still, it seems that a thin line is all that separates military pressures that would push Hamas to restrain Islamic Jihad and Israeli action that will require Hamas, from its perspective, to respond harshly.

To focus the threat, the IDF has called up reserves and places an additional division command in the south, alongside the Gaza Division. Defense Minister Benny Gants authorized the army to call up 25,000 reservists; at the moment it is not certain that this entire number will be called up. The reservists will assist the regular army in air force missions, intelligence and the Home Front Command. At the moment there is no intention to call up reserve brigades. The reason is clear: Israel does not believe that a ground operation will be necessary against Islamic Jihad. It will address this issue only if considerable escalation occurs involving Hamas.

Egyptian Intelligence officials are working overtime to try to arrange a cease-fire. All sides involved have been here many times before. The IDF is talking about at least a week of fighting — but are hoping to wind things up much sooner. But the well-worn cliché according to which both sides aren’t interested in escalation doesn’t guarantee anything. Looking back at previous rounds of hostilities, from Operation Cast Lead in 2008 onward, shows that in most cases there was no mutual desire for a prolonged conflict. Things got out of hand and gradually led to an escalation.

The last intense round of fighting in the Gaza Strip was in May 2021, during Operation Guardian of the Walls. The main difference between that campaign and the current one, Operation Breaking Dawn (other than the notable decline in quality of the names chosen for the operations) is that Jerusalem is so far not part of the escalation scenario.

Operation Guardian of the Walls began following serious tensions surrounding the Temple Mount, when Hamas decided to take the initiative by the launching rockets from Gaza toward Jerusalem. This time, Al-Aqsa is not part of the story, at least for now. This may be the reason for the relative calm among Israel’s Arab population.

In the West Bank, the joint “operations headquarters” of the Palestinian organizations in Jenin, which also include members of Fatah’s Tanzim militia, have threatened terror attacks against Israel.

In the West Bank, the IDF is carrying out preemptive raids; it arrested some 20 Islamic Jihad operatives Friday night. This is another attempt by Israel to send the organization a message: You tried to create a deterrent balance that prevents us from arresting your West Bank operatives? We will go ahead and step up arrests.

The question of Jerusalem

And yet, Jerusalem can still become part of the escalation, with the start of the Tisha B’Av fast Saturday night. A number of observant Jews are expected to visit the Temple Mount/Haram al-Sharif, home of Al-Aqsa Mosque. The Israel Police have said they have no plans to restrict these visits, which could be met with Palestinian violence. Jerusalem didn’t start the violence this time but may still find itself contributing to a prolongation of the conflict.

Another difficulty involves the logistics of ending the operation. The messages from Israel are sent indirectly, mainly through Egypt, to Hamas or Islamic Jihad. The Iranians, who are hosting the heads of Islamic Jihad, and contrary to common wisdom in Israel did not initiate the current clash but certainly are pleased with it, will not hurry to help end it. The Islamic Jihad leadership is not among their people in Gaza and don’t feel the pressure. The question of how many laborers will leave the Gaza Strip to work in Israel in another week, if any, also worries Hamas, not Islamic Jihad.

For now, it seems that Prime Minister Yair Lapid’s government (Alternate Prime Minister Naftali Bennett wields less influence by now) is managing the crisis well. The cumulative experience of Defense Minister Benny Gantz, IDF Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi and Shin Bet head Ronen Bar can also be seen. In the past two days it has won fulsome praise from enthusiastic journalists, not to mention sycophantic advisers.

The reason is quite simple: For the first time since the Olmert government in 2006, a centrist (let’s say) government is killing terrorists. Nevertheless, we should recall the enthusiastic amazement during the first days of the Second Lebanon War – who else remembers the “Churchillian speech” in the Knesset that the media went wild over? We should know how things end. Israel achieved its aims in the current round. The faster it acts to end the fighting, the better.