After the war is over, the question becomes: who will control Gaza?

As Gaza crumbles under Israel’s most sustained and aggressive military operation in decades, the future of the enclave grows ever more uncertain.

In the six weeks since Hamas terrorised Israel, killing 1200 people, mostly civilians, and kidnapping hundreds, more than 12,000 Palestinians in Gaza have also paid with their lives. While Israel stares down international pressure for a ceasefire, world leaders and diplomats grapple with the question of what life will look like for Palestinians after the last Israeli bomb falls. Even if Israel achieves its goal to dismantle Hamas’ political and military arms, what comes next for Gaza, and who fills the political vacuum?

In Tokyo, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken insisted any future governance must be Palestinian-led, with Gaza and the West Bank unified under the Palestinian Authority.

But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected any role for the Palestinian Authority in the Gaza Strip if ever the mission to weed out Hamas succeeds. The Israeli Defence Forces would control the strip for ‘‘as long as necessary’’, he said. Israel would not give it to ‘‘international forces’’.

US President Joe Biden, however, pushed back on any increased role for Israel, telling Netanyahu only a two-state solution would do, and adding that occupying Gaza would be ‘‘a big mistake’’.

While the US and much of Europe sees the Palestinian Authority as the only genuine alternative to Hamas, it is woefully unpopular among most Palestinians, who see it as weak, corrupt, ineffectual, and led by an 87-year-old president Mahmoud Abbas in his 18th year of a four-year term that expired in 2009.

For decades, the authority has been responsible for security in parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank, yet violence there has risen exponentially. At least 186 Palestinians, including 51 children, have been killed by Israeli forces in the West Bank since the October 7 Hamas attack, according to UN figures. An additional eight have been killed by Israeli settlers, while four Israelis have been killed in attacks by Palestinians, according to the figures quoted by Reuters.

Other actors being floated as potential guardians of the enclave include a multinational coalition of Arab states, neighbouring Egypt, and the United Nations until a transition to self-government can take place.

Filling the political vacuum that will likely emerge when the acute fighting eases may be the hardest piece of the puzzle, said Monica Marks, political scientist in Islamist movements at New York University’s Abu Dhabi campus. ‘‘It seems like Israel has sallied forth with very little thought to ‘day-after’ scenarios, and whichever power assumes the governing reigns in a transitional period … it’s going to probably have to contend with a Hamas insurgency,’’ she said.

Military risks, economic cost and concerns about regional perceptions of ‘‘policing the rubble’’ on Israel’s behalf are all strong disincentives for Arab states to take on any sizeable role, Marks added.

Nathan Brown, professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University, said the most likely outcome was an indefinite Israeli military presence in the Gaza Strip and a major shift in where and how surviving Gazans would live. ‘‘That may be the outcome … shifting [Gazans] to the south, the destruction of Gaza City, and an ongoing Israeli security presence.’’